Prompt Library

Reset your cash runway model to actuals every month and stress-test it

Every month after the books close, Sai resets your runway to actual cash and net burn, checks how last month's forecast held up, and republishes a simulator where you can test hires, revenue slips, and churn — and watch the cash-out date move.

The PROMPTS
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On the [5th] business day of every month, after the books close, update my runway model and republish the simulator. Actuals come from [accounting export / bank export / finance sheet URL]. The plan — headcount by role and start month, expected new revenue by month, and planned spend — is in the Google Sheet at [sheet URL]. First, record last month's actual ending cash, actual cash in, and actual cash out, and calculate actual net burn. Compare it with what last month's model forecast for the same month, and show the difference in dollars and percent. Then reset the model's starting point to actual cash on hand today. Use the average actual net burn of the last [3] months as the baseline, and project forward month by month using the plan. Cost every hire at fully loaded cost: salary times [1.3] unless I give you a different multiplier, starting in their planned start month. Publish an interactive web page with: months of runway and the calendar month cash runs out, as one large number; a month-by-month cash balance chart; and sliders for new hires added, hiring delay in months, revenue slip in months, a one-time churn shock as a percent of MRR, collections lag in days, and a new raise with amount and month. Every slider updates the chart and the cash-out date live. Draw a warning line at [6] months of runway and mark the month the balance crosses it. Show the current plan and the adjusted scenario on the same chart. If an input is missing, say which one and leave that lever disabled — do not assume a value. Keep each month's version at its own link, and send me the link with the forecast-vs-actual line in [Slack channel / email].
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Platforms this prompt works across

The runway number founders quote is almost always older than they think. It was worked out after the last raise, adjusted once when the big contract closed, and has been carried around in their head ever since — while two hires started, a customer churned, and invoices started getting paid a month late. Runway is cash divided by net burn, and both of those change every month. A runway figure that is not recomputed monthly is not a slightly outdated number; it is the specific mistake that leaves a company three months shorter than it believes.

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What this recurring task does

After each month's books close, Sai records actual cash and actual net burn, resets the model's starting point to today's real balance, and republishes an interactive simulator. The headline is one number — months of runway and the month cash runs out — with a chart underneath and sliders for the decisions you are actually weighing. Move a slider and the cash-out date moves with it.

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The levers, and what each one really costs

Most runway surprises do not come from a bad forecast of one thing. They come from forgetting what a decision drags along with it.

★ THE LEVERS, AND WHAT EACH ONE REALLY COSTS

LeverHow it is modeledThe part people forget
New hiresHeadcount by role and start month, at fully loaded costPayroll tax, benefits, and equipment — salary alone understates the burn
Hiring delayPushes each planned start date back by N monthsAlso delays the revenue those hires were supposed to produce
Revenue slipNew revenue arrives N months later than planCosts already committed for it still land on schedule
Churn shockA one-time loss of [X]% of MRR in a chosen monthThe loss compounds — every later month starts lower
Collections lagInvoices paid N days later than issuedRevenue can look fine while the bank balance does not
New raiseA cash injection of a set amount in a set monthRunway only counts it once the money is in the account

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Forecast versus actual

Every month opens with a comparison: what last month's model said would happen, against what did. Over a few months this becomes the most honest thing in the whole model, because it shows whether the plan runs consistently optimistic — revenue always landing a month later, hires always costing more — and by how much. No single-use runway calculator can tell you that, because it only ever sees one month.

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What happens on the second run

Actuals already recorded are never recalculated, so the history reflects what the numbers were, not a later revision of them. The baseline burn is a rolling three-month average, which smooths one unusual month without hiding a trend. A missing input disables its lever instead of being filled with an assumption. Each month keeps its own link, so the version you showed the board in March is still exactly what it was.

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Where this fits

Today's runway appears on the runway slide of the weekly executive briefing deck; this simulator answers what happens if something changes. The size of a new raise — and what it costs you in ownership — is modeled in the cap table and dilution calculator. For the classic framing of whether a startup survives on its current trajectory, see Paul Graham's Default Alive or Default Dead?.

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